By Heidi Perez-Moreno

heidiperez-moreno@borderbelt.org

Bladen and Columbus counties are expected to see significant growth in the next five years, newly released projections show. 

Bladen County’s population is projected to grow 5.7% by 2030, according to a February report by the N.C. Office of State Budget and Management. Columbus County’s population is projected to grow 4.5%. 

If the projections hold true, each county would gain more than 2,000 new residents.

Many rural southeastern North Carolina counties are expected to grow in the coming years, in large part because of their proximity to Wilmington and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Duplin, Pender and Onslow counties are all expected to grow more than 5% by 2030. Brunswick County is expected to see population growth of 15.1%. 

The addition of new residents would help many rural counties start to recover from years of steep population declines fueled in part by hurricane damage and the loss of manufacturing jobs, said Dalton Bailey, a researcher with the NC Rural Center.  

North Carolina is set to become the seventh most populous state by 2023, with 11.7 million residents, according to the Office of State Budget and Management. Most of that growth is expected to occur in urban areas and surrounding rural counties.  

For rural counties farther from urban centers, even a modest population increase can be beneficial by boosting tax revenue, creating opportunities for development, Bailey said. “It’s noticeable but not explosive. The growth is gradual enough that it won’t drastically change the region overnight or displace long-time residents at an unmanageable rate.”

Bladen and Columbus counties have been positioning themselves for growth, officials there say. 

Bladen and its county seat Elizabethtown have big plans for a mixed-use project featuring homes and businesses at the Elizabethtown Industrial Park off N.C. 87. The project has been stalled by competing visions, but once completed could become a hallmark of local growth. 

Whiteville in Columbus County has seen the construction of at least two apartment complexes in the last two years, City Manager Darren Currie said. Dunkin’ Donuts opened there in 2022, and the town got its first Starbucks in September. Developers plan to build several subdivisions in southern Columbus County in the coming years.  

“I think we’re finally seeing it, though I don’t know exactly how much,” Currie said of growth. “Brunswick County is experiencing rapid growth, and since New Hanover is virtually full, people are moving in this direction.” 

While growth in rural counties can lead to good-paying jobs, Bailey said there are also challenges, including housing shortages and affordability. “Many rural areas that urbanize struggle to provide sufficient housing, and new developments often cater to wealthier newcomers rather than existing residents,” he said. 

Elizabethtown Manger Dane Rideout said the housing inventory gap is expected to widen with growth. All of North Carolina lacks an adequate supply of housing for all income levels, according to research commissioned by the NC Chamber Foundation, North Carolina Home Builders Association and NC REALTORS.

In Whiteville, officials say they are focused on improving the downtown area and implementing quality-of-life initiatives, such as a concert series now in its second year and more recreational opportunities. Currie said the goal is to add more adult-friendly activities like wine-and-dine events. 

“We’re working to create a vibrant downtown,” he said. “A couple of new businesses have set up shop, and property owners are remodeling and renting buildings. That’s a plus for everyone.” 

Looking ahead to 2060

The Office of State Budget and Management also released population projections for 2060.

Bladen County’s population is expected to swell by 45.5%, which would mean the county would be home to more than 43,000 people. 

Columbus County is projected to see less growth, 2.5%, during that time.  

Robeson County is also expected to see substantial growth by 2060 — 22.2% — that would increase the population to nearly 142,000 people. 

To the west, Scotland County is projected to lose nearly 22% of its population by 2060. 

Much of the population growth in North Carolina comes from neighboring states, namely those in the Southeast, state demographer Michael Clint told the Border Belt Independent. Many newcomers also arrive from New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania and tend to settle in major metro areas or eastern North Carolina. A steady stream of people coming from Florida settles in the mountains.

The projections, which were made using  birth, death and migration rates, offer a clear short-term view of how the state’s population will change. But unpredictable events like pandemics or natural disasters can lead to big changes, Clint added. 

“Things can happen within a year, two years, five years down the road that could change those trajectories,” he said. “So, while we can be more confident about projections two or three years out, predicting 2060 is inherently uncertain.”