This story is part of the Data Point series by the Border Belt Independent.
With hurricane season quickly approaching, at least one group of researchers is predicting below-average storm activity along the East Coast, including North Carolina.
The forecast, released this month by weather researchers at Colorado State University, predicts that 13 named storms will develop in the Atlantic Ocean this hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30. The forecast includes six hurricanes and two major hurricanes that are Category 3 or higher.
An average season has 14.4 tropical storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The main reason for the decreased likelihood of storms is the climate phenomenon known as El Niño. The pattern, which occurs roughly every two to seven years, inhibits hurricane development and intensification due to warmer ocean temperatures and weaker winds. El Niño also tends to push storms south and east, making them curve before reaching the Carolinas.
While forecasts call for a quieter Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, counties across southeastern North Carolina remain vulnerable to catastrophic flooding.
Inland counties–including Bladen, Columbus, Robeson, and Scotland–often face the risk of freshwater flooding because they sit atop a low-lying, flat landscape where the Lumber, Little Pee Dee, and Cape Fear River basins act as funnels for tropical moisture, according to research from North Carolina Sea Grant. This means that even “weak” tropical storms can become catastrophic if they stall and cause rivers to rise. These slower moving storms are what researchers call slow-motion disasters.
Residents can prepare by stocking up on emergency supplies and moving valuables to higher ground. Additional precautions include mapping inland evacuation routes that avoid low-lying bridges, and monitoring real-time river gauges through the N.C. Flood Inundation Mapping and Alert Network system.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” Michael Bell, a researcher on the Colorado State University report, said in a statement.
The Columbus County Community Foundation awarded the Border Belt Independent a $5,000 grant to fund Data Point, a concise feature that focuses on numbers and statistics highlighting an issue or trend in the Border Belt. The Columbus County Community Foundation is a nonprofit that connects people with causes and organizations they care about. It is part of the North Carolina Community Foundation network.